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Steel city view: bad news concentrated steel price weak continuation

Steel city view: bad news concentrated steel price weak continuation

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[Abstract]:
Intheearlyweek,themarketdemandwaslessthanexpectedandthestockhigh,suchastheimpactofhighstock,theshinchengspotslumped,butthesecondhalfoftheSinoUStradingstationabruptlybrokeout,leadingtotheblackseriesofm

In the early week, the market demand was less than expected and the stock high, such as the impact of high stock, the shincheng spot slumped, but the second half of the Sino US trading station abruptly broke out, leading to the black series of multiple futures fell, the market panic spread, detonated the price straight down, spot prices fell more than 300 yuan / ton. Although the inventory data has fallen for two weeks, the current total amount is still high, and the stock market pressure is obvious. At the same time, this week will come to the end of a quarter.

According to the latest monitoring data, in the past week (3.19-3.23), domestic steel prices have fallen sharply, the average price of three grade three grade screw steel in the 61 main markets of the country is 4096 yuan per ton, and a week down by 141 yuan / ton.

Last week, the main regional steel price changes are as follows: the price of steel in Shanghai region is as follows: the price of steel in Shanghai is down sharply, the price fell 170 yuan per ton compared with the last weekend. The price of steel in Beijing area was 3670 yuan per ton as of March, the price of steel in Beijing region fell 100-120 yuan per ton compared with last week, and the 23 daily in March was 3820-3840 yuan / ton; the price of steel in Guangzhou region fell down as a whole, as of the end. In March, the 23 daily price was 4040-4080 yuan / ton, and the total price decrease was 160-180 yuan / ton.

On the aspect of the period snail, the upper cycle snails were overall slump, the main contract 1805 thread fell 362 points all week, the total volume was 19 million 680 thousand hands, and the holding volume reduced more than 37 million hands, which was 2 million 20 thousand hands. Thread in the middle line to maintain the weakness of the short run short cross - plate shock failed to go out of the rebound, the market is expected to continue to decline continued to go down, the market continues to hold empty sheets, black short-term market is not expected to continue to fall, the operation can continue to make empty participation. Operation advice: empty list continues to hold, on the plate can continue to put high sell new warehouse defense put in 3650, black short after a small recuperation again selected down, the plate continues to roll short, the market is expected to go out of a new wave of killing and falling market.

The factors that affect the domestic construction steel market this week are mainly as follows:

First, inventory, by the end of March 23rd, the main domestic market screw steel social inventory is 10 million 348 thousand tons, 364 thousand tons of thread inventory fell last week, second weeks of continuous decline in stock. This week at the end of the 1 quarter, the capital is relatively tight, macroeconomic data is difficult to say optimistic, terminal outdoor construction is restricted by cloudy and rain weather, market procurement demand is not completely released, most businesses take funds to return to the cage, market quotations have fallen. According to incomplete statistics, as of March 23rd, Hangzhou steel city threaded steel library is about 730 thousand tons, 40 thousand tons less than last week; Shanghai steel city thread steel stock is 512 thousand tons, 24 thousand tons less than last weekend, Nanjing steel city thread steel stock is about 300 thousand tons, 10 thousand tons less than last weekend; Nanchang steel city thread steel warehouse stock is 320 thousand About 20 thousand tons less than the last weekend.

Second, from the production situation of steel plant, according to the data of China Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2018, the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises was 1 million 732 thousand tons, 146 thousand and 700 tons and 7.81% less than that in the last ten days. According to this, the average daily output of crude steel in the ten ten days was 2 million 181 thousand and 200 tons, 117 thousand and 300 tons less than that in the last ten days, and 5.1%. In early March, environmental protection and limited production increased in Hebei, Shanxi and other places, which had a certain impact on the production of some steel plants. However, the overall profit of the current steel plant is still at a high level. After March 15th, the steel plants in the northern 2+26 cities will resume production, and the pressure of the later market supply is still large. While the current market inventory, although the decline, but the decline is still slow, and the steel plant stock continues to be in the upward trend, the overall inventory of the stock market pressure is still larger.

Third, the capital, the central bank did not carry out open market operation in March 23rd, because the day has 90 billion yuan reverse repurchase expiration, the net return of 90 billion yuan on the same day, the central bank this week through open market operation to achieve a net return of 320 billion yuan. In the early morning of March 22nd Beijing time, the Fed's monetary policy meeting decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to raise the interest rate range of the federal fund to 1.50%-1.75%, in line with market expectations. After the Fed raised interest rates, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with interest rate tendering, with a period of 7 days and a winning rate of 2.55%, up from 5BP last time. Market analysts said that the open market operation rate rose slightly in line with market expectations, but also the market's response to the Fed just raised interest rates. On the whole, China's monetary policy remains stable and neutral. The central bank will continue to operate the "peak shaving and valley filling" operation and continue to maintain a smooth operation of liquidity.

In a comprehensive view, the market mentality is very pessimistic in the face of the good news of the market, which has just had a slight rise in demand. Although the stock has fallen for two weeks, the total amount is still high. The price of short - term local building materials is difficult to stop.

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